Predictive models

Predictive models that turn your data into decisions.

Fifty One Degrees builds and deploys predictive models that turn your data into decisions: lead scoring, churn, forecasting and pricing, in production within weeks.

The hindsight-to-foresight spine: stop reporting what happened and start acting on what will.
Senior data scientistsPayback under 3 months
Deployed
app.51d.ai / models / conversion-funnel

Conversion Funnel

model live · 90 days
Win rate
3.4%
2.1% → 3.4%
Qualified rate
16%
+5 pts
Revenue / 1k visits
£18.4k
+£6.9k
Model AUC
0.89
validated
Visitor → customer journeyBeforeWith model
Visitors10,000
base
Leads3,100
+29%
Qualified1,600
+45%
Proposal800
+60%
Won340
+62%
Lead-scoring + propensity model, scores written to CRMEnd-to-end lift+62%
51.4°N · 0.1°W
Trusted by growing UK businesses
Heatable
Freddie's Flowers
Stiltz
Resi
Equals Group
Panmure Liberum
The problem

Why doesn’t your data drive decisions yet?

Unused data
“We have years of data and still run on gut.”
Data you sit on but do not use. Without a model, that history is a cost, not an asset.
Stranded models
“Our last data project ended in a notebook and a slide.”
A model that does not reach the workflow changes nothing.
Black box
“We cannot explain why a customer was scored that way.”
In regulated settings, an unexplainable model is unusable.
Six-figure hire
“We need data science but not a full-time team.”
Most mid-market firms need the output, not the headcount.
How it works

How does Fifty One Degrees build a predictive model?

Frame the decision first.
Start from the business decision, turn it into a prediction target, and pick the highest-value one.
Engineer features on your own data.
Feature engineering on your history in Python, on the warehouse from Data Engineering & BI, guarding against data leakage, the most common reason a model looks brilliant in testing and fails in production.
Use the simplest model that wins.
Interpretable models (logistic regression, gradient boosting) often beat deep learning on tabular business data and are easier to explain and maintain. Complexity only where it earns its place.
Validate honestly.
Train/test splits and cross-validation, reported straight. Where AUC is quoted (how well the model ranks a yes above a no; 0.5 is a coin toss, 1.0 is perfect), it is the validated figure.
Deploy and keep it honest (MLOps).
Batch or real-time scoring, writing scores into the CRM or systems, with monitoring, drift detection and a retraining schedule.
Explain every decision.
For regulated contexts, explainability such as SHAP values plus an audit trail, so a score can be defended to a regulator or a customer.
Use cases

What can Fifty One Degrees predict?

Lead scoring and prioritisation.
Rank inbound and pipeline by likelihood to convert. Revenue & Growth
Churn prediction.
Flag at-risk customers early, with the reason, so retention is targeted not blanket.
Demand and revenue forecasting.
Forecast volumes and revenue to plan stock, staffing and cash.
Pricing optimisation.
Model willingness to pay and elasticity to hold margin.
Customer lifetime value and propensity.
Predict CLV and next-best-action to focus acquisition and cross-sell.
Customer segmentation and targeting.
For grouping customers and targeting campaigns specifically, build bespoke segments via the Living Segmentation Model. Customer Segmentation & Predictive Targeting
Build options

In-house hire, DIY tools, or Fifty One Degrees?

OptionTrade-off
Hire an in-house data scientistA senior hire and months to recruit before anything ships, and hard to retain for one team
DIY with off-the-shelf toolsCheap to start, but generic models on messy data rarely move a number
Fifty One DegreesSenior data scientists, a validated model deployed into your systems in weeks, your team trained to maintain it, you own the IP
Case studies

Data science in production

Resi
Predictive lead scoring
A predictive lead scoring model scoring new registrations by conversion probability, so the team prioritises the leads that close.
Read the case study
Our Taap
Marketing & credit data science
Marketing and credit data science for sharper targeting and decisioning.
Read the case study
Who it’s for

Who is this for?

A model is worth building when a recurring, high-value decision is still being made on instinct rather than evidence.

01
Commercial and operations leaders
Sitting on data they cannot yet act on.
02
Mid-market firms
That need the output of data science without a full-time team.
03
Regulated businesses
Financial services and insurance that need models they can explain and audit.
04
Subscription and retention-led businesses
Where churn and lifetime value decide the P&L.
How it runs

How does a data science engagement run?

Senior data scientists, proof-of-concept first. Payback is typically under 3 months, you own the IP, and your team is trained to maintain it.

Weeks 1–2
Discovery & data audit
Frame the decision, audit the data, and agree the prediction target.
Weeks 3–5
Build & validate
Build and validate the model with a human in the loop.
Weeks 6–7
Deploy & integrate
Ship into your CRM or systems with MLOps monitoring.
FAQ

Questions firms ask Fifty One Degrees about data science

Are there affordable data science solutions for small and medium-sized businesses?

Yes. Fifty One Degrees builds data science for the mid-market, with a validated model on your own data in weeks and payback typically under 3 months. You do not need an in-house data team: senior data scientists build it, deploy it into your workflow, and train your people to maintain it.

How do you deploy a model into the business, not just build it?

Fifty One Degrees ships the model into the workflow as batch or real-time scoring, writing scores into your CRM or operational systems, with MLOps monitoring, drift detection and a retraining schedule. The deliverable is a working prediction that changes a decision, not a notebook or a slide.

What does AUC mean, and what is a good score?

AUC measures how well a model ranks a positive case above a negative one: 0.5 is a coin toss and 1.0 is perfect, with most useful business models well above 0.7. Fifty One Degrees reports the validated figure from proper train/test and cross-validation, not a cherry-picked number.

Can you explain why a model scored a customer the way it did?

Yes. For regulated contexts Fifty One Degrees favours interpretable models and adds explainability such as SHAP values, plus an audit trail, so a score can be defended to a regulator or a customer.

Do we need clean data before you can start?

Not necessarily. If the data foundation is not there, Fifty One Degrees builds it first through its data engineering and BI work, then layers the models on top.

How long does it take, and how fast is payback?

A proof-of-concept-first engagement runs roughly seven weeks end to end (about two weeks discovery, three weeks build and validation, two weeks deployment), and payback is typically under 3 months because the model is proved on your real data before any full build.

Do you do data science for the energy and utilities sector?

Fifty One Degrees builds predictive models across sectors, including energy and utilities use cases such as demand forecasting and asset and customer analytics. The method is the same: models built on your data and deployed into the decision.

Is this the same as customer segmentation?

Segmentation is one application of data science. Fifty One Degrees covers the full range here (lead scoring, churn, forecasting, pricing), and has a dedicated page for customer segmentation and predictive targeting where it builds bespoke segments on your own data with the Living Segmentation Model, the owned alternative to Acorn, Mosaic and CAMEO.

Next step

Find the highest-value prediction in your business.

Book a 30-minute discovery call and we’ll find the highest-value prediction in your business, and scope it for you.